The Presidential polling organizations have varying degrees of accuracy, but they are all wrong on one account. No, it’s not that Barack Obama doesn’t have a comfortable lead. There is consensus that he leads. The lead differs based on the poll, and varies from three to thirteen points as of this writing. What is wrong about the polls is that they are not fully honest: they ignore third party candidates. On CNN today, I saw a poll in which Obama, McCain and Undecided added up to 100%. Now, whether that poll counted third party votes as Undecided, ignored them, or whatever else, it is safe to assume that they didn’t poll hundreds of people and find zero Nader, McKinney, Barr, Baldwin or write-in supporters.
The ignorance of third parties is startling just eight years after the Nader-Gore issue. In every state in which Zogby cannot predict a winner at this time, the Not Sure/Other vote is more than the margin by which Obama leads. Those states are Florida, North Carolina, Ohio, Missouri and Nevada. If McCain loses anyone of them, but especially Ohio and Florida, the prognosis will be bleak. If that’s the case, then the disenfranchisement of moderates and libertarians, Ron Paul supporters and further pandering to the Sarah Palin end of the spectrum could be to blame. If Obama loses Ohio or Florida, he could be in for a long night as well, though it is less likely. Obviously neither can expect zero votes to go to third party candidates, but how the media has avoided coverage of the impact of those candidates makes zero sense.
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